Expectations of future technologies - Visions of future society

Expectations and visions about the future potential of a technology play an important role during the long-term process of socio-technical change. In the niche-phase of technical development, expectations act as replacement for future technical functions that a technology cannot yet fulfill. Expectations legitimate further investments of time, money, manpower, etc. in the development of a technology. They provide guidance for the development activities of different actors in a technical field and coordinate these activities towards a common goal. In order to fulfill these functions, expectations must circulate. As part of the specific discourse in a technical field, they have material character which makes them a suitable issue for analysis.

Technology blogs represent a good source for analysing the conflict between positive and negative expectations. The blog authors take the role as opinion leaders because of their early access to new technologies on conferences and exhibitions. They often are early adopters and describe their own experiences with technologies in every detail on the blogs as well as any new development in a technical field. The blog writers record cooperations, patents, new hardware and software and, more important, negative expectations and the resulting counter-measures like regulations, citizens‘ initiatives, etc. The research project aims to identify and describe positive and negative expectations towards future digital technologies which are understood as expressions of hopes and fears resulting of experiences with technology in the past. Monitoring the development of expectations contained in technology blogs over a longer period promises insights in the socio-technical negotiation process and in present barriers for future technology development.